Market Surge

Dow posts best 5 days in 75 years, up 17%.

Obama hasn't done anything yet, really, except putting people in future positions, but it is increasing investor confidence. And when the market level is entirely based on emotion and not actual economics, a little confidence goes a long way.


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Flash forward

Dateline November 28th, 2040: President-elect Waller promises to prohibit the population from using "-gate" at the end of anything to denote its status as a newsworthy scandal in the making.


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Obligatory Thanksgiving Reflection Post

At 5:06 AM this morning, as I slunk quietly in with the demonic horde to my local Best Buy electronics megastore, I thought to myself that what I would be thankful for would be if I simply survived. Having heard the news that earlier that morning a man had in fact been trampled to death at a Long Island Wal-Mart, you can imagine that I, the stereotypical anti-shopper, was feeling a little anxiety as I meandered back to the television section to buy a remarkably cheap item for my brother-in-law. Twice shoved out of the way by frenzied consumers, I eventually made it to the back, and to my item of choice. Once I had the item in hand, it actually became sort of a game, trying to find my way to the front, then being directed into a hairpin theme-park line composed of rows of refrigerators. I purchased the item and was gone: in and out in less than 10 minutes.
When I returned home, I finished my cup of coffee, put the item away, hung up my coat, and climbed back into my warm bed next to my snoozing wife.
I was thankful to be home, to be in a warm bed, and to have my wife there waiting for me.


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Taxing gas

Gregg Easterbrook proposes, via Allan Sloan, that the government put a tax on gas that held the price at $4 a gallon.

Why not, he supposed, tax gasoline in such a way that it will always cost the equivalent of $4 (the amount rising in sync with inflation), and at the same time abolish CAFE standards. This is the sort of transformational insight Washington needs more of. A higher gasoline tax could be used to retire national debt or to lower Social Security taxes, which matter more to average people than income taxes. If the public knew that gasoline would always cost at least $4 per gallon, super-complicated MPG regulations would no longer be needed, because free-market forces would take care of the rest -- most buyers would choose lower-horsepower higher-mileage cars of their own free will. Those who were willing to pay the piper could purchase whatever kind of vehicle they pleased. Detroit wouldn't have to spend any time or money twisting arms in Washington, and could focus its energies on car-making rather than on regulatory lobbying.

He goes on:

Either the national debt or Social Security taxes would decline. Federal bureaucracy would shrink. What's not to like?

I think Gregg is missing the fundamental idea of market transformation lag here. Increased gas prices did not just affect commuters driving to work every day, nor is the environmental impact of gas usage limited to those commuters. One of the major consumers of fuel in this country is the commodities industry that trucks its goods primarily via semi-trucks and diesel powered trains across the country.

$4 gas simply wasn't instantly sustainable. The price had outrun gradual inflation, and although some would argue it was still behind the equivalent price of gas in the 60's, you can't ignore that the economy was built around a set price of gas and would have adjusted to gradual inflation, a sudden spike in price was an aberration, not a correction. Surely there will be a day when gas will cost $4 (and $5 diesel), and the global economy will adjust, but summer 2007 wasn't that day.
Second, you can't instantly switch from your gas guzzler to a hybrid. Many consumers, like carpenters, electricians, and various contractors are reliant on their pickup trucks to carry their tools of the trade. Many people are locked into 5 year plans to pay off their current SUV that they can't even give away. $4 gas was hurting the U.S. economy, and although it sure made hybrids and electric cars seem super neat-o, well, they've always been super neat-o. But we can't all just up and buy one today.

I appreciate the idea of setting a price on gas and using the extra tax revenue to pay our bills. But what happens when the Federal Budget becomes used to getting several hundred billion dollars a year in tax revenue and market factors drive the price of gas to $4.25? Suddenly there is no tax revenue from gas...where does the government make up the loss on their balance sheet?


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Joe Biden, President

Among all this hoopla about Obama's allegedly fake birth certificate, etc. etc., I want to educate the masses on why there is no way McCain could possibly be the President. The electoral college, who votes in the President based on the popular vote, does not cast their ballots until Dec. 15. Sen. Obama is still Sen. Obama until then, he is not technically elected. If Justice Thomas were to decide Obama is not a U.S. citizen and declare him ineligible to be President, then the electoral college, which was heavily Democrat in this election, would choose someone else. My guess would be Joe Biden.
But the electoral college is required to vote for the party's Presidential and Vice Presidential candidate that they are bound to by the popular election this past November 4th. Unless John McCain switched to the Democratic Party, he has a 0% chance of becoming President.


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Bipartisanship NEVER works

I keep seeing this idea on the TV news or on blogs.

I guess I don't see what possible motivation Bush has to involve himself in a smooth transition. From a partisan standpoint, the Democrats have dealt a cruel blow to the Republicans via the election results; shouldn't the Republicans be a little bitter?
And if Obama succeeds in recovering the economy, that would further the Democrat agenda, and darken Bush's legacy as a terrible President. I highly doubt Bush and Obama will ever be chummy.

Other than "serving the common good," I don't see the motivation for Bush here.


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NASA, HIRE ME!

Dear NASA,

Embarassed for the engineers who designed the faulty urine recycler that cost you $250 million, I have designed and propose to you a urine collector that will work for 20 years, cost less than $500 to build, and less than $300 to service and replace. Best of all, I guarantee this machine will work, time after time, year after year. Because I love my country and low taxes, I pass this design along to you for free.

Here's how it works:
1. Astronaut puts urine into balloon container.
2. Balloon container placed in decompression chamber.
3. Decompression chamber releases gases into space, decompressing it.
4. Urine evaporates spontaneously due to low pressure.
5. Hand bellows pumps urine through filter that removes particulates into second balloon in compression chamber.
6. Second chamber returned to cabin pressure.
7. Pure water spontaneously condenses.
8. Astronaut drinks pure water.
9. Periodically change filter.

I have many other obvious ideas that would save you a fortune. Give me a call some time, I'd be happy to save you more money.


Sincerely,

TAE


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Stimulate me...again! (Again)

I hear Obama plans to keep up the Presidential tradition of pumping "our children's generation" for loans by spending it now.

I'm tired. Boy am I tired. I'm tired of hearing that the solution to our economic problems is for the government to stimulate encourage us to continue consumptionism and stop being frugal. I'm tired of hearing about individual fiscal responsibility when the entire national structure largely endorses fiscal ineptitude.
Everyone, even me, thinks Obama is a very, very intelligent man. But when are we going to stop this inane attitude where we just throw money at a problem? I used to laugh at Dave Ramsey, author of Total Money Makeover, when he advised the government to do nothing. "Let the credit market completely collapse," he argued, "it's the only way to stop America's addiction to credit." Most agree that letting the banks die would have killed the U.S. (and probably global) economy, and needed to be saved. But now I am really beginning to regret it. Is the solution to the U.S. credit crisis an increase in foreign credit? Do people honestly believe we'll ever pay off these loans?
Most of the $700 billion bailout package will be financed via loans from foreign lenders. If Obama has his way, we'll see another $500 billion in financial stimulus, plus $200 billion in tax losses, plus President Bush's $150 billion stimulus earlier this year. That's nearing $2 trillion in loans written by foreign nations to the United States. We (and by we, I mean me, not you old croaks that debted away my future) will have to pay all that back, plus interest. Is it really such a smart idea to mail off several trillion dollars in U.S. debt to foreign nations?
And when are we going to have a budget surplus...ever?

I'll tell you when, it'll happen in exactly infinity years.

The NBA basketball team in Washington D.C. is named the Washington Wizards. This is an apt title for a team from this area, because apparently the local people honestly believe that magic will occur. There is literally no way we will ever balance our budget or have a budget surplus in my lifetime, without the aid of conjurations or incantations. I swear to you as a man who grew up from day one seeing credit become the primary mode of trade in this country to the point that cashiers can't count change anymore; this nation has become a fiscal joke. If Obama really, truly, honestly believed that throwing more money at the country's credit issues would permanently solve our economic straits, then he and his advisors should resign immediately. There is no way that anyone with a shred of realism in their spine will acknowledge this is any more than a temporary band-aid placed on top of other ineffectual band-aids over a massive, hemorrhaging, infected wound.

The only solution, as I see it, is to amputate.

That said, if Obama wants to spend $500 billion on infrastructure...man oh man is it a great time to be an engineer! Bring on the massive -budget government projects!

Leave NCLB Behind.

One political issue that I hope to hear more about is No Child Left Behind. Written by Congress (Including Ted "I'll never die" Kennedy), and signed by President Bush shortly after taking office, NCLB is a controversal method of holding teachers and districts accountable for their students educations, but putting benchmark requirements on their reading, writing, and math skills. When students fall behind, the schools can be punished.

There are many problems with this, so many, in fact, that I can't possibly address them all. You can read all about it on various websites and blogs devoted to discussions of the invalidity of NCLB. But as a blogging engineer, one would think I would be a proponent of students increasing their math, reading and writing skills. Wouldn't it make sense, for an engineer who writes and reads and uses math every day to love a test that forces students to be more like me? Of course it would, if only engineers were totally mindless drones.

As any fellow blogger acknowledges, reading and writing is what gives democracy its voice! Without the ability to read, we couldn't learn to dissent. Without writing, we couldn't publish our dissent. And as any fellow engineer will quickly recognize, mathematics is the rational formulation of reality. Without math, none of this would make sense. Every word I type is translated via mathematical coding (binary) and the fundamentals of how a computer works is all based on mathematical formulas. A quick example: the keyboard is "qwerty" across the top row because a typist figured out which keys should be where in order to minimize the chances a typewriter's arms would crisscross.

True, part of why I excelled in reading is because I learned to read at a very early age, but just as much because at an early age I was chugging through science fiction novels and historical fiction books as fast as I could get them.

And also true, part of why I excelled in writing is because I had to write essays in A.P. English. But just as truly, I excelled in writing because I tried to write my own science fiction novel, because I wrote love-letters to girlfriends, and because I wrote in a diary.

Finally, it is true I excelledin math because from an early age I had a grasp of multiplication and algebra, and I was pushed hard by my math teachers, but its just as true that I excelled in math because in an art class I learned how to draw fractals long before I knew the math behind their structure.

The point is, although we do need to raise today's children to excel in math, reading, writing, and other core curriculums, it is folly to not let their imaginations get some test points too. Schools concerned with making the NCLB minimums are cutting down on recess, decreasing time spent in art and music classes and P.E. class, and taking whatever steps necessary to boost their 3R's while sacrificing the whole right brain.

This is a terrible, terrible plan. If you look back at history, the greatest minds of all time, each and every one, had some very right brained tendencies. Leonardo, arguably the smartest person of all time, excelled in painting and sculpture just as much as in math and science. Einstein, the poster-child for smartness, excelled at math beyond imagination, but enjoyed debating ethics and philosophy and religion just as much as Unified Field Theory. Edison, with over 1,000 patents in the fields of science, manufacturing, and chemistry, spent his free time reading fiction.

If we neglect the full breadth of education for tomorrow's children and turn them into mindless calculators, we will do them an injustice that we cannot measure.

Let them eat cake?

Part of the problem with handing out candy to one of your kids is then you are morally obligated to give candy to all your other kids. The same goes for government bailouts to businesses.

Harley Davidson numbers have been dismal all year (and much of 2007). As early as Feb, 2008, Harley admitted they were having liquidity problems, and were having trouble keeping their balance sheet black. From Robin Farley, at UBS:

"Subprime borrowers are approximately 15% of Harley's sales. Management plans to continue subprime lending, since stopping subprime loans could have a materially negative impact on Harley sales."

Wait, so Harley Davidson is lending to substandard buyers and now is in a liquidity crisis? Where have we heard this lamentation before? From the mortgage banks? From the auto industry? Is this America's new financial model?
1. Keep company looking profitable through risky lending practices.
2. Keep company looking profitable through even riskier lending practices.
3. Fail miserably.
4. Look to government for help.

Or maybe this is is:
Phase 1: Lend to people that shouldn't be buying things.
Phase 2:
Phase 3: Profit.

So what's phase 2? I don't think anyone really ever figured it out.

Just don't be surprised when Harley Davidson comes looking for their government handout too. Harley was founded five years before GM, and 3 months before Ford. Aren't they as integral a part of America's identity as Ford, Chrysler or GM? I can't say I didn't see it coming, though. Harley markets primarily to Boomers, as Gen X and us Gen Y's don't really like cruisers, we prefer the much more dangerous sportbikes. Harley has been profitable for 20 straight years thanks to the Boomers buying up their internally combusted nostalgia. Unfortunately, as the baseball card industry learned, it is possible to saturate a market. Harley dealers are reporting massive overflows in their inventory, and that they are having to create huge markdowns below factory invoice in order to clear product off their floors. Sound familiar? Maybe like SUV's from the auto industry?

I think people are underestimating the scope of damage caused by America's consumptionism. I also think we are treading heavily into a grey zone if we start bailing companies out. I really hate to think about all those American workers losing their jobs. But I also think we need to start treating Americans like children and punish them until they learn their lesson.

Dot's Poetry Corner

A good read, and a quick one.


Five points to anyone that got the reference in the post title.


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Waiter, check please.

During the TARP discussions, when Congress and everyone with half a brain was talking about the bank bailout and who would get what and how we'd pay for it and how much it'd cost us, etc etc. there was talk that "those that sowed should reap," i.e. people that had taken out bad mortgages should pick up more of the tab than the common schmoe like myself who rents an apartment and has no investments worth crying over. Why, we all asked ourselves, should I pay taxes to bailout these corrupt Mammon-worshipping a-holes when I was smart with my money?

Well the economics of the thing were pretty far-reaching, and (although I would have been safe, I bank at UMB, who is doing great) most of us would have been up a creek as the U.S. economy imploded had the banks gone under.

Now here we are again, and Detroit needs a bailout. Man am I getting tired of hearing about it. But the question I ask is maybe the personal responsibility should apply in this case. How could this possibly effect a cattle rancher in Montana? Or a wheat farmer in Wichita? Or a coal miner in Virginia? There is a giant portion of the United States that has no Ford, GM or Chrysler plant. There is an almost as large chunk of this country that has no plants that make parts that are shipped to the Big 3 plants.

Can someone explain to me why Montana taxpayers should be equally penalized via taxation in order to get Detroit a few more months on life support? There are places, and they are large, in this country that would feel literally zero negative effect if a black hole opened and swallowed the Big 3 over night. Their cars would still start in the morning. They could still get parts (granted, not certified parts, but still) if something broke, and there are several other car companies nationally mobilized in this country to sell people cars if suddenly the Big 3 were unable to do so. Why should citizens of Montana backwater towns be beholden the same as the townsfolk of Flint?

Now someone might argue "well, that's just the patriotic duty of each American; to help out one another in a time of trouble."
Fair enough, that is a valid argument. But would the citizens of Flint, Michigan put up a fuss if they were told their taxes were going up to pay subsidies to cattle farmers who can't afford grain for their cattle anymore due to ethanol being so popular? You bet they would. Or would the citizens of Detroit cry "foul" if they were asked to give up an extra 5% of their income so that low-income families could have health insurance? You better believe it.

So the question becomes: should those who stand to lose the most if the Big 3 go bankrupt pay the most, or should we all pay up equally? Even though most of us at this dinner table only had the house salad and a bowl of soup, should we all pony up equally to pay the tab for the fat kid who had the riblet platter? Or is this the day we put our foot down and stop paying for his gluttony?


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Economic Nightmare/Dream

Here's a scenario, for all of you that read: The U.S. economic downturn pushes our consumptionist culture down low enough that it levels the playing field with other nations. Let me take a specific example. Say the Chinese try to sell toys to the American kids this holiday season, but the American parents aren't buying. So the Chinese lower their prices. Still, the Americans don't buy. So the Chinese lower their prices even more and suddenly the toys are affordable to the Eastern Europeans and the Chinese themselves. China moves massive numbers of toys to countries other than America, and America suddenly has to compete for business. Either buck up and pay more for Chinese toys...or open toy manufacturing in the U.S. and the Chinese can keep their business to themselves.

Now I know this is a stretch, but it is possible. And it's happening already. Take Toyota, for instance. The Americans have stopped buying their SUV's, so they lowered prices. And lowered prices, and now they've lowered prices enough that the Indians want Toyota cars like never before.
You hear on the news about the trade deficit shrinking, and fast. Where are all the HDTV's going that would have come here? Well, they're going to other countries that will pay what the Americans won't and the shipping is cheaper to get it there.
Why is the price of oil plunging worldwide? Weren't the Europeans paying twice what we were? The reason it is dropping is that America defined the commodity price for oil. The entire oil market is based on America first, everyone else second. Now that oil is in a free fall, suppliers are going to either have to swallow the lower price, or find new buyers. And when that happens maybe it'll be a little encouragement for local drillers to produce their own oil?
And maybe, just maybe, as the price of oil plummets we'll remember how fun it is to drive a Ford Mustang GT or a Cadillac Escalade EXT and we'll save our friends in Michigan. We'll stop buying foreign cars, because it's patriotic to help our friends out and why buy foreign jobs anyway, Gimme a big SUV.

Did I mention gas is $1.37 less than 10 miles from my apartment? That's absurd.


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All out of excuses?

I mentioned to my wife on Wednesday, as I bought a 20 oz. bottle of Mountain Dew (the finest beverage in all Christendom), that when 20 oz. bottles went from $1.19 to $1.29 they claimed it was because of rising transportation costs due to the increased price of fuel.
Then, this spring they raised prices another 10 cents, as gas surged up past the $4 mark.

However, now gas is cheaper than it was when either of these price hikes occurred. Why can't I buy a Mountain Dew for $1.19? Seems like I should soon be buying my drinks for $1.09 as the price of gas continuing to plummet.

Similarly, airlines have been hiking up rates "due to rising fuel costs" for the last few years. The lone cheap airline, Southwest, claims it was able to sell tickets cheaply for a number of reasons including locking in $70 oil contracts years in advance. Now oil is trading at $50, a five year low. Shouldn't the airlines ticket prices plunge as fuel is now easy to be had? Shouldn't these airlines lock in oil contracts at this new (and probably unsustainable) low just like Southwest did before the price rebounds to a sustainable $65-70/barrel? Why aren't they doing this? Why are ticket prices staying constant or continuing to climb?

These companies are missing a golden opportunity to rebound their profits: lower their prices and increase the movable quantity of their goods.

It seems to me they are now profiting off the short-term memory of the economy. No one seems to remember why they raised their prices, they accepted the price increases at the time, considered rising gas prices a hopeless, one-way road, and never concerned themselves with the chance that in the future gas prices might decline and so too should commodity prices.

So if the prices aren't coming down, what's the excuse?

Motorala's newest phone: The Kevlar

Nearby, in the woods, an estranged wife's voice could be heard: "Damn you Motorola!!"


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Latest news on pirates

Have no fear, I hear most of the Somali pirates look like Kevin Kline and do this all day.


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I win!! Oil at $49.75 in early trading!

Take that, Economic Expert and trader Clarence Chu of Hudson Capital Energy of Singapore! I, who have no formal economic education was able to better guess that within a couple days we'd see oil below $50 a barrel!

In other news, I predict I will soon be making numerous accurate predictions!


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Ross Douthat, shameless bootlicker

My goodness, Ross, the guy isn't even President yet, he has years to screw up.


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My Detroit Bailout.

Since literally everyone in the blogosphere has weighed in on the Detroit bailout, and all I've put in was 1 of my 2 cents, I figured I better say a little more. So here is my carefully structured Detroit Bailout Plan.

1. All money comes in the form of an interest free loan, payable after 5 years, at 10% of loan value per year.

2. All money comes from the existing $700 billion bailout package already in play.

3. No money comes from the $25 billion already promised to the Big Three to retool their factories for more efficient cars.

4. An automotive company receiving any money from this legislation shall produce:
a. Vehicles under 2000 lbs. shall achieve 35 mpg highway or better, no exceptions.
b. Vehicles under 3000 lbs. but greater than 2001 lbs. shall achieve 30 mpg highway or better, no exceptions.
c. Vehicles under 4000 lbs. but greater than 3001 lbs. shall achieve 25 mpg highway or better, no exceptions.
d. A vehicle shall not have more than 1 horsepower (measured at wheels not at driveshaft) per 10 lbs. of vehicle.
e. Vehicles over 4000 lbs. shall require a CDL class license to operate.

5. No automotive business receiving money from this package shall receive government assistance for a period of 15 years or until this monetary package is repaid, whichever comes first.

6. All positions at any company receiving government money shall be limited by the Federal Income limit imposed based on Presidential pay, that being, total compensation for an individual shall not exceed $400,000 per fiscal year, with an additional $19,000 for travel. Any individual that reports a gross income of higher than this amount on their IRS tax receipt shall forfeit any income that exceeds this amount to the Federal Government as a direct-principal payment towards their companies' bailout package payoff. Any employee of a company who does not report all income received by them, their spouse, and their dependents shall be subject to investigation by the IRS.

7. All employees over the age of 55 at a company receiving money from this package shall be immediately given the standard company retirement package and shall retire. Of these, any employee who leaves the company and reports income outside of the retirement package that equals the value of the retirement package shall forfeit their rights to retirement from the company.

8. All employees currently receiving disability payments from a company that accepts bailout money from this package shall immediately report to a government-approved physician (see attached list) for evaluation. Employees who cannot prove true need to remain on disability shall either return to a full-time work schedule or terminate their employment without benefits or compensation. Any employee currently on disability leave over the age of 55 must report to a government-approved physician as well; those qualifying as disabled will be retired per item 7, those not will be terminated from current employment without benefit or compensation.


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Cry havoc and let slip the robots of war!

Some scientist/engineer, in a moment of frustration, must have pouted to himself that "it'd be so much easier to make robots that walked like animals than ones that walk upright like Man."
Then that enterprising soul formed a company called Boston Dynamics, got oodles of money from the Pentagon via their Defense Advances Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and started developing.
Now Boston Dynamics has finished several surreal robot prototypes that mimic quadrupeds.

The videos are short and worth a watch.
"BigDog"
"LittleDog"
Creepy climbing monster that weirds me out.
Alligator thing

Anyway, as far as "BigDog" is concerned, it doesn't seem that far off in the future that these things might become the faithful companions of soldiers, as dogs became the faithful service companions of humans thousands of years ago. Is it so hard to see a future where a group of soldiers has their packdog carrying a couple hundred pounds of dangerous ordinance? Is it hard to imagine a soldier, trapped behind enemy lines, activating his GPS device and LittleDog, with a gallon of water and two MRE's strapped to its back, sneaking through the forest to the trapped man?

All we need is a robotic dragonfly to swoop in and take video footage of the enemy.

There's a Run on Guns at Macy's!!

From The Abstracted Father: "I was at the gun store buying powder for reloading and the place was packed. Everyone is trying to buy handguns before Jan. 20th."

He's right. Multiple news outlets have reported a nationwide surge in gun sales since Obama's election, fed by fears there will be a ban on concealed weapons and assault weapon sales.

Now I support the right to shoot guns. TAE is an avid hunter, and enjoys unloading his weapons into targets during the off-season. Should an intruder break into my home and threaten my family, TAE would be more than willing to unload into the intruder as well. Should this nation get involved in a war so dire it required my services in the military, TAE would bear arms against foreign nations just as willingly.

But has patriotism sunk so low that large numbers of people feel they must protect themselves from the government by stockpiling assault weapons? Assault weapons have no use in hunting; they are inaccurate, heavy, and dangerous. The only purpose for assault weapons is to kill people. If an intruder broke into your home, you could more easily and more effectively stop them with a handgun than with a large assault rifle.
The only possible reason that an American could logically have for buying an assault rifle is they no longer trust their government and are concerned in the near future they will need to violently defend themselves from the U.S. military that is coming to take them to camps.

But I think everyone can relax, for now. Even if Senator Obama (technically he should still be doing his Senatorial duties...you know...the ones he largely ignored for the last 2 years while he campaigned...) bans guns, I believe it will be temporary. Gun ownership is cryptically mentioned in the Bill of Rights and as such falls under the direct jurisdiction of the Supreme Court. Thanks to Bush's conservative appointments of Roberts and Alito, the Supreme Court currently appears to be pro-gun.

So before everyone panics and fills their basements with weapons of human destruction, just ask yourself: why do you want an assault rifle now, when you could have bought one since February 2004, when the previous ban was lifted. You've had 4 good years to buy up any gun you wanted. What is about to change, other than you might have a ban put in place? And did you need assault weapons during the last ban? If you did, why didn't you purchase them before now?

Butterflies to Flowers: Drop Dead.

I highly doubt the Republicans actually said that.

This would be a good example of media bias.



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I love peace, but WE love war.

Melissa analyzes whether war is human nature. This is not a new question for me, regardless if there is new scientific evidence for it. I argued here that its possible that we wouldn't be here at all without a theoretical penchant for annihilating Neandertals.

An important distinction must be made here, that although archeological evidence and modern behavioral analysis suggests that we (and especially us males) have within our DNA the ability to wage cruel war, in no way does that imply that human nature also includes the delight of one human to torture and cause pain to another.

Though we may justify our wars on various grounds, like nowadays freedom from oppression or religious grievances, or in the past water rights, food rights, and breeding rights, we cannot therefore justify waterboarding for freedom, or crucifixion for religious reasons.

On September 11th, I was this close to enlisting. But I didn't, because I wouldn't have been joining for the right reasons. The wars my grandfathers generation fought in, my father's generation fought in, and my generation is fighting are all for very different reasons. But at no point did America join a war with the express purpose of causing suffering to another group of humans.

The desire to cause another person pain is unique to the human race, and is a mental sickness of the advanced mind we evolved ourselves. It is not normal, it is not inherited, and it can be cured.

Maybe we'll always have war, I can't really say. Maybe our species evolved and dominated the planet becuase of our violent nature. Maybe some day, far down the road, we'll wipe ourselves off the planet in a violent, aggressive nuclear war. But we should never use our warlike nature as a justification for torture.

And if it is true, that we evolved the ability and cunning skills needed for highly organized warfare, it is just as feasible for us to evolve back into peaceful, egalitarian creatures some day in the future.

The Voice of My Generation - Kanye West?

When I think about whom I would like to have to represent me to other generations, a few names come to mind. Kanye West is not, however, one of them.

Apparently he thinks he is. I can understand that it is hard to be a rock superstar, and live large with a nice house and five cars, (shout out to Cypress Hill) but honestly, what exactly does Kanye West think he has achieved that qualifies him as the voice of my generation?

If anyone is the voice of my generation, it is either Obama girl or the Free Credit Report Dot Com guys.


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Ivory Tower Academics

Via Ross, the tastefully named Alex Tabarrok proposes we sell some of the government owned land in the western half of the country in order to pay off our debt.

Thank God that Ivory Tower Academics like this usually don't get far.

First off, where are the trillionaires that Tabarrok thinks are going to pony up for this land? Only the tiniest top percentage of Americans are capable of buying land in the remote backwoods of the rockies, and of those, most would find it impossible to actually get to the land they had bought. The majority of these huge tracts of government land don't exactly have paved roads.

Secondly, the only reason the logging industry doesn't go chainsaw-happy on most of the lodgepole pine forest of the Rockies is because the government owns all the land they'd love to strip. Opening up land for private sale would mean the logging industry would quickly swallow up any land with fertile forest, and strip-cut it. The current plan allows the logging industry to lease land with required replanting regulations. Privately owned land is unregulated.

Third, the least obvious, but most important, reason that this is a terrible idea is water. West of the 100th Vertical (longitude), irrigation is absolutely required to produce profitable crops. With the Colorado river drying up via towns like Vegas and Reno sucking it dry, reservoirs like Lake Powell and Lake Mead at 50% capacity, the last thing we should do as a country is encourage development of more cities in the water-vacant West.

But wait, Tabarrok makes the point this should be done because the government needs funds...and then says we should use the funds from land sales to...buy more land! How does that solve our fiscal deficit at all? Sell the desert to buy the plains?


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Earth, the Toilet Paper Roll

The best thing about this article is not the evidence of evolution in action, but rather that they use toilet paper as an analogy to describe the Earth.


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Just when you think you've seen it all...

Nanobama.


And yet, they still haven't figured out jet-packs.


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Detroit...let em burn?

Here's a run down of what's going on.

Detroit asks for billions to "retool" factories to produce more efficient vehicles.

Price of gas drops.

Detroit plans to start producing SUV's again as sales begin to climb.

Detroit (again) asks for billions to pay health care costs of work force.

Let 'em go bankrupt, I say. So does Megan. And she makes the awesome point that although the media argues that the bankruptcy of Detroit might put 2-3 million on the street, there is a finite pool of money in this nation, and if we pull $25 billion out of the taxpayer pocket to fund GM, Ford and Chrysler, we then remove $25 billion the taxpayers could have spent elsewhere. That means, in a way, 2-3 million other "invisible" jobs disappear.

Green Revolution (UPDATED)

They're powering their health clubs in London using power converters strapped to stationary bikes. This is a pretty cool idea, and has a lot of potential.
If a kWh of electricity costs $0.10, then a neat way for a truly beneficent health club to encourage healthy patrons would be to offset your monthly membership by how much energy you "donate" to the health club's power supply.

Let's say I ride at 180W, for 2 hours a day, 20 days a month. Thats 2X20X180 = 7.2 kWh of power. At that rate, I could see a $0.72 savings on my monthly gym bill. Small change, I agree. But if the gym had 20 bikes going year round (not to mention the higher power output during spin classes and other more intense riding periods) you could easily see a savings of 3,600 kWh, or roughly the power required to light 72 homes for a month.

There are roughly 35,000 gyms in America. If suddenly they were filled with bicyclists riding for green change, its not hard to believe that a significant carbon impact could be made. Other equipment, too, like rowing machines and stair climbing machines, could also be used to harness power.

It's an appealing concept. The harder you exercise, the more money you save, and the more positive environmental impact you make.

Of course, the article gets ahead of itself by calling the idea the brainchild of Jay Whelan. Anyone who has watched SportsCenter on ESPN in the last 3 years has seen the commercial where ESPN keeps Lance Armstrong in the basement of the ESPN building, powering the entire building with his bicycle. <-updated

Now what?

Although the last several months of blogging about politics has been great, now that the election is over, this blog can get back to the business of technology.

The noticeable absence of decent tech blogs (that don't spend every other day hating the Creationists or promoting an agenda) is apparent on the internet, so it would seem a good idea to focus on technology as a way to inform my massive readership about things non-political, non-religious, non-partisan.

However, I reserve the right to go off about whatever current events may pop up. That's the whole point of blogging!

Why not record my life digitally?

Canon, back in April, announced their new "gee whiz" camera, the 5D Mark II, which pretty much blows the doors open on the world of "wow that's awesome I need it now now now" electronics. The Camera features a full-frame 21.1 megapixel sensor, 29 autofocus points, 25600 ISO, and pretty much every camera option on steroids you could imagine.

However they threw in a bone that I just can't resist mentioning. The camera comes with 1080i HD video recording capability. That means the camera can record video of a similar quality to your HD video channels on your TV. Imagine, you're taking photographs of something great, and suddenly you think "man, I want a half hour of hi-def video of this too," and you just push a button and away you go.

However, it dawned upon me that this possibly is opening up the doors to a new frontier: recording your entire life on DVD. Let's do the math (quickly):

Canon estimates half an hour of HD video will take around 4 GB. So if you are awake for 16 hours a day = 32 half hours X 4 GB = 128 GB a day.

365.25 days/year X 80ish years = 29220 days X 128 GB/day = 3,740,000 GB

And that's 3,740 Terabytes. Currently, on NewEgg, a 1.5 terabyte hard drive is going for $150.00. 3740/1.5 = 2494 hard drives X $150 = $374,000 dollars.

That's right. For a third of a million dollars, you could record someone's entire life in hi-def.

And that's the price for memory today. With the industry turning over to solid state memory drives, and the price of memory plummeting with no floor in sight, it's believeable that by the time you needed to store your elderly years, it might be "one terabyte for one dollar."

How will this change the world? Well, probably Canon's camera won't change the world, but the ability to digitally record everthing and store it forever is setting us up for some interesting scenarios:

- If you only need low quality video for security surveillance, is it so hard to believe that cities might set up cameras everywhere to monitor the streets.

- Set cameras up at every traffic intersection to record people running red lights in hi-definition, making it easier to read their tags and mail them tickets.

- Use those same cameras to read license plates in real-time (using automated software), looking for stolen cars and reporting them to the police (and taking hi-quality shots of the driver).

- Record college students in lecture halls taking exams to spot and document cheaters.

- This puts a whole new spin on the porn industry.

- An explosion of "day in the life" documentaries.

- Entertainment industry starts rudimentary versions of SQUID recordings from the movie Strange Days.

UPDATE: Worried about filling up your house with hard drives? This site claims enough memory to record your entire life digitally will be available in 2026, and be the size of a sugar cube.

UPDATE 2: Think hi-def is a little much, and want to record your entire life on one single 1.5 terabyte hard drive? This guy is doing it (Full article here).

An Open Letter to the President-elect.

Dear Senator Obama,

I'm not the only one that noticed your choice for White House Chief of Staff is a former board member at Freddie Mac. Nor am I the only one who noticed that Rep. Emanuel once argued for more aggressive lending to under-qualified loan applicants.

Now, I really went after President Bush for encouraging reckless lending. I hope I don't have to do the same to you. I warned people you might be a socialist. Please don't prove me right.

Please don't tell me you are going to pick up where he left off. The nation has had enough of investment bankers using the economy as their craps table.

Sincerely,

TAE


I'm right.
I'm right.
Emanuel's appointment is bad news for Ahmadinejad. So much for us standing back and letting him nuke Israel.

Fantasy Cabinet Draft

For those of us familiar with "Fantasy Football," it seems to me a fun idea to pick Cabinet positions for the Obama Administration with no regard to reality.

So here's my picks for Cabinet positions:

1. Secretary of State: Fareed Zakaria. After a month he'll realize how hard foreign policy really is, and he'll quit, at which time Tiger Woods would get the nod.

2. Secretary of the Treasury: Rich Uncle Pennybags. Obviously.

3. Secretary of Defense: Godzilla. Obviously an immortal monster that can shoot death rays out of its mouth would be a good candidate to defend this country.

4. Attorney General: John Sherman (via time machine). Goes to work on big corporations.

5. Secretary of the Interior: Bruce Lewis, Ducks Unlimited President.

6. Secretary of Agriculture: Bruce Banner, no Cabinet would be complete without at least 3 superheroes.

7. Secretary of Commerce: Anthony Spilotro. Already familiar with Chicago politics. Amalgam of jobs 7, 8, and 9.

8. Secretary of HHS: Position Eliminated

9. Secretary of HUD: Position Eliminated

10. Secretary of Transportation: Frank Bullitt.

11. Secretary of Energy: Richard Simmons. Who else on earth to lead this department than the most energetic person on the planet?

12. Secretary of Education: Detective John Kimball. Because if you can teach discipline to Kindergarteners, surely you can lead the Education wing of this nation.

13. White House Chief of Staff: Edna Mode. Someone this obsessed with her work would be perfect.

14. Chairman of the Federal Reserve: Jack Kemp.

New cabinet posts created

15. Secretary of Space: Yoda. Who more intergalactic wisdom has?

16. Secretary of Secretaries: Ben Bernanke. His job is the be the patsy of the new administration. Every time something goes wrong...Just Blame It On Bernanke!

Note to Isolationists: Don't Expect Star Wars.

The probe headed for the moon, sent by India, is on track for a lunar orbit (not landing) in the next week.

Relax, panicking Pentagon officials and news outlets!

India's neat trick, which is actually a follow-up to Japan and China both putting satellites in moon orbit in late 2007, is a technological feat that should be applauded.

However, before we all start sweating and looking into the night sky in fear, remember this:

America put a human into moon orbit 40 years ago last month. Americans walked on the moon 7 times before 1972 was over. Americans have two rovers wandering around Mars. In terms of the space race, the Chinese, Japanese, and Indians are really just toddlers.

Nevertheless, this raises a very exciting issue for me. Is there a chance I could live to see the Earth's first Star War? Is there a chance I would be recruited to fly an X-Wing starfighter against Japanese T.I.E interceptors? Will I be chosen to lead an assault on the Indian Death Star before it destroys the planet Alderaan? Will I be able to resist the temptations of the Dark Side of the Force?

One last thought on yesterday

After they called it for Obama at 10:02 CST, I turned to The Abstracted Wife, who was at the computer working on homework, and said "honey remember where you are right now because our kids are gonna ask us."

This morning, here in the Midwest in an affluent neighborhood, at a middle-class job in a male-dominated industry, I don't see a lot of reaction, just a lot of quiet faces doing their work and not talking about their loss. I don't really feel like the awesome, radical act of last night has sunk in fully; how can it when there is literally no one around me to talk about it with?

Well anyway, congratulations to America for being the shining light of democracy in an increasingly undemocratic world.

Where was I when Barack Obama got elected? I was sitting on my couch, marveling at the fact that Brit Hume's face must be at least 18 inches from chin to forehead, and looking forward to going to Chicago this Friday.

Fox News

Am I the only one that was watching Fox News and cringed every time Megyn Kelly went to the big board and showed demographics in exit polls?

"Amongst white voters, 63% for McCain, 36% for Obama."
"And amongst Young Voters, 59% for Obama, 40% for McCain. You can see Obama's polling very well there."
"But amongst White Evangelical Christians, McCain is doing very well, up 60% to Obama's 39%, a spread of more than 20 points."

How incredibly racist. Where was the Black Evangelical Christians demographic? Or the White atheists demographic? Because, you know, we should all be concerned with what the white evangelical christians are doing with their votes.

Later, Megyn was talking about a different state:
"Amongst the white voters, you can see that Obama and McCain are neck and neck, at 49% each. But many urban precincts are still reporting, and urban areas usually have a large black population."
Somehow that offended me too.

Anyway, by and large Fox News was fun to watch, as Brit Hume And The Defeatists gave up essentially from the minute Pennsylvania went to Obama. I was expecting to see them fight the facts at least until California polls closed, but they had Obama up 200 EV to McCain's 93 fairly early in the night, and were actually calling Obama victories in states (North Carolina and Indiana) where other stations like MSNBC were much more hesitant.
However once California closed and they called the election for Obama, I switched over to MSNBC, which was shooting close-ups of people in Grant Park. The Abstracted Sister and TPI were supposedly there with The Abstracted Nephew, and I would have loved to see them.

Wacky Californians

Seriously, California is just about the only place outside of Western Europe where people worry about things like chicken rights. California Proposition 2, aka Standards for Confining Farm Animals, makes a requirement that farmers design their pens for pigs, calves and chickens in such a way the animal can freely sit, stand, or extend its limbs fully.

Now I don't know about you, but out here in the Midwest we don't give a crap if our animals can do any of that. Free range chickens are one of the most annoying animals on the planet. 63.6% of Californians believe chickens need more room to stretch out. My guess is that 63.6% of Californians have never actually seen a live chicken. I would go further and suggest that now that Proposition 2 has passed, each California citizen be required to catch a chicken. Those god-forsaken animals are impossible to catch, are spiteful, and usually prefer to be eaten by foxes than to placidly sit in their coop and lay eggs.

But with all humor aside, this is a terrible idea, and the majority of Californians don't see it. Many speculate, like Megan, that it will drive the cost of eggs up around $0.25 a dozen. What's a mere quarter a dozen, they say? But they do not factor in the bakeries and breakfast buffets and myriad of other businesses across the country with large-scale operations using thousands of eggs a day. Companies like Interstate Bakeries in Kansas City, a producer of Wonderbread products, estimates that on a busy day they use upwards of 2,000 eggs.

Times a quarter, times 365 days...equals a cost increase of $182,500. Now I'm sure the math isn't that simple, but the point is laws like this have a massive concentrating effect, like the way a little DDT killed mosquitoes, which grew into greater concentration in mosquitofish...which grew into greater concentration in salmon, which then destroyed the eggs of salmon-eating eagles.
Maybe you and I the consumer will not feel the pangs of a quarter increase, every other week. But when bread, cake, rolls, and every other product using eggs also increases in price...then we'll notice.

All so that chickens can flap their wings.

Hangover

I think a map of Missouri's voters by county is always neat after an election. Missouri is the most bi-partisan state I can think of.

Speaking of Missouri, congratulations to TAE's fraternity alumni Sam Graves, who was reelected to his 5th term in the U.S. House for Missouri's 6th District.

The Cougar

Oh my gosh! Sarah Palin is healthy! I want to change my vote!




...

Election Coverage

Tonight, I shall watch election coverage. In the spirit of humor, and humor alone, I'll probably tune into Fox News, so I can watch them lie about exit polls, and see Brit Hume squirm as the Obama votes become an insurmountable majority.

But maybe I'll watch boring, dry, non-partisan PBS.

Or I could watch the New Year's Eve-like festivities going on at CNN or MSNBC.

Tuesday, November 4th.

Happy Birthday to the Abstracted Sister, may all her birthday election wishes come true.*



*Except for the ones I disagree with.

Why would I want a cure?

What Sharon doesn't understand is that there is absolutely no logical reason why a pharmaceutical company would want to develop a cure for anything. Pharmaceutical companies have a simple business model: treat and treat and treat but don't cure.

Let me put it in analogical terms: if you had a car that never needed maintenance and never wore down, then you'd never buy another car. Curing diseases eliminates repeat customers. But people who try cholesterol medication after cholesterol medication drive a huge profit for drug companies that spent millions on research.

Many promising fields of medical research, like a stem-cell treatment for ALS, never get the funding they need and the research they require from large corporations. Obviously, when you can give a 5 drug cocktail to treat the symptoms but not the disease, milking money out of the patient for years, you stand a lot more financially solid than if you administered a single injection and never saw the person again.

Countdown with Ben Affleck

Ben Affleck is absolutely brilliant in this skit.

Defeatism at its finest

My election prediction:

Despite the belief that this may be the greatest election turnout in decades, I boldly predict the numbers will be disappointingly low.

The reason for this will be that many conservative and die-hard republicans will stay home, considering standing in line for a "losing cause" would be a waste of time.

This fulfills my obligation to say something about the Chiefs.

The Kansas City Chiefs looked absolutely brilliant for the first 29:00 of their game on Sunday against the TB Buccaneers. The reason? Wildcat Offense.*

Back in week 3, the Miami Dolphins faced a daunting challenge: beat the Patriots. To do that they came up with the biggest idea in sports: getting their plays from high school football. Wildcat Offense is a very popular high school play-calling method in which the quarterback lines up as a wide receiver (or stands on the sidelines) while the running back takes the snap. The reason this works so well is that normally on a running play the quarterback hands the ball off to the runningback then gets out of the way and stands around, making it effectively 10 offensive players vs. 11 defensive players. If the quarterback swings out wide as a receiver, a defensive player must cover him, and the running play suddenly becomes a much better 10 on 10.

When Miami showed up with the Wildcat Offense against New England, the Patriots defense stumbled around confused for 60 minutes and handed Miami a great win, boosting Miami's legitimacy as a coming-back franchise. The next week, another team tried it, then another.

This past Sunday the Kansas City "We have nothing to lose" Chiefs showed an aggressive, no-holds barred approach on offense. Late in the first quarter, quarterback Tyler Thigpen lined up as a wide-out. "It's Wildcat!" TAE shrieked at The Abstracted Daughter. She gurgled happily and watched. On the snap of the ball, Thigpen made a half-hearted attempt to block the defensive back, convincing the corner and safety it was a running play. Then, Thigpen broke with all his speed for the endzone as wide receiver Mark Bradley (who?) lobbed a lazy pass over the dumbfounded Buccaneers defense...to Thigpen. Touchdown Chiefs.

With less than a minute left in the first half, the Chiefs were dominating 23-3, as the energized Chiefs offense was powering an aggressive defense to stop all attempts by the Bucs to regain momentum.

Then, in the second half, the Chiefs didn't line up a single Wildcat play. It was as if Mr. Hyde had gone to the locker room at the half and Dr. Jekyll had come back to the sidelines afterward. The Chiefs quickly gave up their 20 point margin and managed to eek out a loss in overtime.

I'll be near the front of the line to rail on Herm Edwards, and I'll cut up further in line if we all get a chance to speak our minds to Carl Peterson, but that first half Wildcat was pure joy to watch. The Chiefs, with nothing to lose, were trying all sorts of shenanigans, many with great rewards. It was as if the Bucs entire defensive plan was to smear two or three players all over Tony Gonzalez, who was basically ignored by Thigpen in the first half. Then in the second half, it was incompletion, incompletion, incompletion to Gonzalez. I felt like Gruden, the Bucs coach, had called Herm at halftime and said "wow, that Wildcat Offense sure put us on our backsides! But seriously, you guys are supposed to lose this one, remember?"

Ingenuity and risk-taking are what separate good coaches from average ones. In the first half, Edwards was being a good coach, and taking a risk on the Wildcat offense and on his young players. In the second half, Edwards was completely average, because anyone could see that the safe thing to do was to just throw to Gonzalez.

*For those readers that have watched the viral spread of the shotgun formation from high school to college to the NFL over the past 10 seasons, expect the same to happen with the Wildcat.

Deciding factor.

Last night, as I tried to explain the two candidates to Mrs. TAE, it dawned on me that I had a rather easy decision to make.
The problem I have been having is that I see Sen. McCain as a fairly moderate Republican and Sen. Obama as a fairly moderate Democrat. It was hard for me to identify a single issue I considered important on which they diverged that could polarize me to vote one way or another.

But last night it finally dawned on me (when I was trying to explain "Joe the Plumber" and McCain's tax plan vs. Obama's tax plan) that there is a simple way to separate them.
Mr McCain is genuinely looking out for all Americans as individuals. Mr. Obama is genuinely looking out for Americans as a collective unit.

The way I see it, Sen. Obama's tax plan may hurt some people's pocketbooks more than Senator McCain's tax plan will. But by and large, it seems to me that the ideology of Sen. Obama is one of good for all Americans in general, not individually. Senator Obama wants the country as a whole to be a better place, while Senator McCain's ideology seems to be that he wants as many individual Americans as possible to have a better life.*

For me, that made the decision easy. If my instincts on the two men are correct, then a person in my situation (that is, an undecided voter 4 days before the election) would be voting for McCain out of selfishness, and not patriotism. The choice to vote for Obama, though I do not make it lightly, nor especially happily, has become the most logical choice.

There is another thought, however, that arose in me this morning. The idea that my 1 year old daughter could become an adult in a world where a black President was completely normal is an enticing idea for me. My parents grew up in a country that had just erased segregation around the time they were born, and if, in 50 years, we've gone from there to a black President, maybe I can be little more optimistic about this country.
As a parent, I have quickly stopped worrying about things that happen during my lifetime, and instead have instinctively begun focusing on things that will happen during the lifetime of my children.

The idea that my daughter wouldn't be able to understand what life was like before we had a black President warms my heart. It gives me hope that maybe my granddaughter won't be able to understand what life was like when we had cancer. It gives me hope that my great-granddaughter will wonder what life was like when we had war. It gives me hope that my progeny, many generations down the road, will wonder what life was like when people lived on Earth.

It would be such an ironic twist that the Bush Legacy might not be Iraq, or Katrina, or The Bailout, or any number of failures. The Bush Legacy could very well be that his incompetence, his consistent bullheaded ignorance of the will of the people, and especially his (and his friends') arrogance pushed this country so far to the left that he has paved the way for the single most radical act of my lifetime. I saw footage on FoxNews of elderly black women standing in line to vote for Senator Obama and laughing and giving each other "high-five." I can't imagine raising my daughter in a world without moments like that.

When I look into the face of my daughter I realize I absolutely must vote for Senator Obama.