Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Yet another quiet hurricane season is coming and going

Back in 2008, I wrote (and linked Easterbrook) that 2008 and 2007 were forecast as "above average" hurricane seasons, and people that know stuff about hurricanes told us to prepare for several major Category 5 hurricanes. As we are all aware, this did not happen. And now that August - October, the peak Atlantic hurricane season is over, I feel we should all take stock of the bizarre fact that since Katrina, the United States has not had a major destructive hurricane other than Ike in 2008.

So why has it been so calm out there in the Atlantic? I'm sure there are Climate Change experts that gnash their teeth at the lack of hurricanes; many scientist predict that increasing ocean temperatures will increase evaporation of water...which will in turn increase hurricane strength. This year, there wasn't even a named Atlantic storm until mid-August.

Colorado State University's Dr. William Gray, a perennial overachiever, predicted in 2006 17 named storms with 5 major hurricanes; there were 10 named storms with 2 major hurricanes. In 2007, the CSU team predicted 17 named storms with 5 major hurricanes, there were actually 15 named storms and only 2 major hurricanes. In 2008 the guru at CSU finally appeared to calm down, he predicted an "active" season with 13 named storms and 3 major hurricanes, instead there were 16 named storms and 5 major hurricanes. Maybe they should stick with what works! For 2009, they went back to panic mode, and predicted 14 named storms, with 3 major hurricanes. So far, with less than a month left in Atlantic Hurricane Season, there have been only 8 named storms, and 2 major hurricanes.

It's almost as if these people don't know what they're doing!


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